Russia's GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 4.3% by year-end

As recalled by a specialist, last week, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach released information, consistent way of Russia's GDP at the beginning of August 2011 increased by 5.2% compared with August 2010. In January-August GDP rose by 4% over the same period last year. "In July, the economy has grown by only 4.2%. With this in view of seasonal and calendar points of GDP in early August, up 0.4% in July, actually is too good pokudazatelem. A similar Move up and demonstrated industry. Exactly so because economic growth was seen in July to June. Thus, we talk about movedt some accelerating capacity of Russia's GDP, because in fact, reliable information on MED, January-July grew the economy by 3.8% year to year. With this in early July, the economy grew by 0.4% versus 0.2% in early June. Despite this, hardly possible to wait for lifting up dannoego nainaibolee nevedli year by 4.3% ", – says in a comment Safonov. With this, he instructs, consistent monitoring of the Ministry of Finance, in 2012, Russia is expected to slow to 3.5% rise. "This is due to the fact the actual lifting of the Russian economy is currently based as a rule in the construction industry and retail trade. At present the share of manufacturing in GDP continues squeezed, constrained production resources necessary, there is regression in the manufacturing sectors ", – emphasizes the expert. According to him, "There is a real danger that our own economy in the coming months will slow down eventually, but in fact these other grounds while encouraging, although daved on them much any deterioration." "The fact is, in fact at the moment there is very dangerous trend in the industry: declining production of oil products, vehicles and equipment, also squeezed pokudazateli food sectors. This will lead to proper, at least until the end of the year and the beginning of the coming year rates of industrial production will fall. Let me remind you, in fact, in January-August 2011 rise compared with January-August 2010 was 5.4%, and hardly for the year exceeds dannoet pokudazatel 5.6-5.8%, "- notes Safonov. He thinks, in fact, "the current situation in the global economy and the state of affairs in takved nainainaibolee developed countries makes polovednie quite dangerous." "If current risk, and as soon as takved process will take a protracted nature, movedt be repeated, albeit by no means guaranteed, the script in 2008. The fact is, in fact in the Reserve Fund was only 722.28 billion rubles. September 1, and the amount of funds it down repeatedly, in cases as in 2009, the "rainy day" was nainaibolee 4 trillion rubles. and this allowed significantly mitigate the results of the decline. With this desire to increase profits and reduce costs byudvedta leads to the actual cost of innovation and infrastructure development are growing much more slowly, while maintaining all of the risks koie currently exist, recovery movedt be less than 3% withdrawn in 2012, " – predicts a specialist.