The $ 64,000 question: Was the recent Marist-McClatchey poll that showed Sarah Palin within five points in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama a fluke? Here are 10 reasons why I do NOT believe this particular result or the overall poll was a fluke: a) The piece by pollinsider.com explaining in his usual analytical fashion why the result "is no fluke" http://pollinsider.com/ 2011/09/21/palin-47-obama-47-turnaround-why-marist-poll-is-no-fluke / Besides his discussion of how the Democrats When polled recently by Marist, CNN and ABC / WAPO in the horse race polls of the GOP presidential contenders, Sarah Palin has shown up in the mid teen range which is better than she had been polling since mid-July. In other words here is another measurement which shows a boost in support for her among GOP primary voters recently. So therefore is it any wonder in a head to head matchup with Obama in September that she should bring over that increased "base" support with her to narrow her margin against him? I think not. 9) And putting the Marist poll in historical context, this poll was taken after Palin 's two spectacular speeches to TP supporters over the Labor Day weekend and the later write-up by Anand G. at the New York Times giving her good reviews on her devotion to the topic of crony capitalism. Bearing in mind that Obama 's fortunes are even sinking within his own base (Steve Chapman of the Chicago Tribune called on Obama not to run again) and the positive reception again to the above speeches, wouldn ' t it seem reasonable to conclude that this would translate into Palin 's poll numbers against Obama improving as well? Sure, I suppose you could make the argument that her overall poll numbers against Obama might have improved by as much as eight points but to improve by 16 points over the course of a month beggars belief or defies the law of gravity. To that argument I would submit that I don 't think it would be possible either unless the President was currently in free fall and headed for the abyss. And objectively that is apparently what is happening to Obama now and over the past month. Sometimes when you live through a historical moment you don 't realize what is happening or that a fundamental shift may be occurring. Sept 2011, in terms of the GOP primaries and the 2012 general election may be one of those times. 10) And finally the reason this result showing Palin only five points in arrears of Obama head to head is no fluke is the current implosion of the Bachmann campaign and Rick Perry 's sub-par performances in his first two debates. As a result more and more GOP primary voters see Sarah Palin as more viable and electable; again witness the net +29 gain among both Republican members and TP supporters and a net +20 gain among conservatives over the course of only one month. And finally there are continued rumblings that Palin is about to throw her hat into the ring by the end of September, convincing more and more GOP primary voters that she is running and that she should be seen now as a serious presidential candidate. And that includes the changing perceptions of many independents as well.
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