The model analyzes how the strength of the economy next year would affect each candidates chances of defeating President Barack Obama. Nate Silver models the likelihood of each candidate winning the popular vote based on 2012 G.D.P. growth, President Obamas current approval rating and the ideology of the candidate. At a rate of 2.5% GDP growth, the model shows Huntsman with a 71% chance of defeating Obama, Romney with a 58% chance, and Cain with 41% chance. The model has huntsman leading every candidate in every scenario. (Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com …
