‘Like horse-mounted cavalry in opposition to tanks’: Turkey has perfected new, lethal technique to wage battle, utilizing militarized ‘drone swarms’

From Syria to Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh, this new technique of army offense has been brutally efficient. We’re witnessing a revolution within the historical past of warfare, one that’s inflicting panic, notably in Europe.

In an evaluation written for the European Council on Overseas Relations, Gustav Gressel, a senior coverage fellow, argues that the in depth (and profitable) use of army drones by Azerbaijan in its latest battle with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh holds “distinct classes for the way nicely Europe can defend itself.” 

Gressel warns that Europe could be doing itself a disservice if it merely dismissed the Nagorno-Karabakh preventing as “a minor battle between poor nations.” On this, Gressel is right – the army defeat inflicted on Armenia by Azerbaijan was not a fluke, however relatively a manifestation of the perfection of the artwork of drone warfare by Baku’s main ally within the preventing, Turkey. Gressel’s conclusion – that “many of the [European Union’s] armies… would do as miserably because the Armenian Military” when confronted by such a risk – is spot on. 

What occurred to the Armenian Military in its quick however brutal 44-day battle with Azerbaijan goes past merely shedding a battle. It was extra about the best way Armenia misplaced and, extra particularly, the way it misplaced. What occurred over the skies of Nagorno-Karabakh – the place Azerbaijan employed a bunch of Turkish- and Israeli-made drones not solely to surveil and goal Armenian positions, however form and dominate the battlefield all through – may be likened to a revolution in army affairs. One akin to the arrival of tanks, mechanised armoured autos, and plane within the early 20th century, that finally led to the demise of horse-mounted cavalry.

It’s not that the Armenian troopers weren’t courageous, or well-trained and outfitted – they had been. It was that they had been preventing a type of battle which had been overtaken by expertise, the place regardless of how resolute and brave they had been within the face of the enemy, the end result was preordained – their inevitable demise, and the destruction of their tools; some 2,425 Armenian troopers misplaced their lives within the preventing, and 185 T-72 tanks, 90 armored preventing autos, 182 artillery items, 73 a number of rocket launchers, and 26 surface-to-air missile methods had been destroyed.

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A brand new type of warfare

What occurred to Armenia was not an remoted second in army historical past, however relatively the end result of a brand new type of warfare, centered on the usage of unmanned aerial autos (UAVs, or drones). Azerbaijan’s main ally within the battle in opposition to Armenia – Turkey – has been perfecting the artwork of drone warfare for years, with in depth expertise in full-scale trendy battle gained in latest preventing in Syria (February-March 2020) and Libya (Might-June 2020.) 

Over the course of the previous decade, Turkey has taken benefit of arms embargoes imposed by America and others which restricted Ankara’s entry to the type of front-line drones utilized by the US all over the world, to as a substitute construct from scratch an indigenous drone-manufacturing base. Whereas Turkey has developed a number of drones in varied configurations, two have stood out particularly – the Anka-S and Bayraktar.

Whereas the favored time period for the type of drone-centric fight carried out by Turkey is “drone swarm,” the fact is that trendy drone warfare, when performed on a big scale, is a deliberate, extremely coordinated course of which integrates digital warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance, and weapons supply. Turkey’s drone battle over Syria was managed from the Turkish Second Military Command Tactical Command Heart, situated some 400km away from the preventing within the metropolis of Malatya in Turkey’s Hatay Province.

It was right here that the Turkish drone operators sat, and the place they oversaw the operation of an built-in electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) warfare functionality designed to jam Syrian and Russia air-defense radars and gather alerts of army worth (corresponding to cellular phone conversations) which had been used to focus on particular areas.

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For each $ 1 in losses suffered by Turkey, Syria misplaced roughly $ 5

The most important methods utilized by Turkey on this position are the KORAL jamming system and a specifically configured Anka-S drone working as an airborne intelligence assortment platform. The Anka-S additionally operated as an airborne command and management system, relaying concentrating on intelligence to orbiting Bayraktar UAVs, which might then purchase the goal visually earlier than firing extremely exact onboard air-to-surface rockets, destroying the goal. When performed in isolation, an built-in drone strike corresponding to these carried out by Turkey may be lethal efficient; when performed concurrently with 4 or extra methods in motion, every of which is able to concentrating on a number of areas, the outcomes are devastating and, from the attitude of these on the receiving finish, could be likened to a lethal “swarm.”  

The preventing in Syria illustrated one other vital issue relating to drone warfare – the disparity of prices between the drone and the army belongings it may well destroy. Turkish Bayraktar and Anka-S UAV’s price roughly $ 2.5 million every. Over the course of preventing in Syria’s Idlib province, Turkey misplaced between six and eight UAVs, for a complete substitute price of round $ 20 million.

Within the first night time of preventing in Syria, Turkey claims (and Russia doesn’t dispute) that it destroyed giant numbers of heavy tools belonging to the Syrian Military, together with 23 tanks and 23 artillery items. Total, Turkish drones are credited with killing 34 Syrian tanks and 36 artillery methods, together with a major quantity of different fight tools. If one makes use of the typical price of a Russian-made tank at round $ 1.2 million, and an artillery system at round $ 500,000, the overall harm accomplished by Turkey’s drones quantities to some $ 57.three million (and this quantity doesn’t embrace the opposite appreciable materials losses suffered by the Syrian army, which in complete might simply match or exceed that quantity.) From a price perspective alone, for each $ 1 in losses suffered by Turkey, the Syrians misplaced roughly $ 5.

Turkey was capable of take the teachings realized from the preventing in Idlib province and apply them to a special theater of battle, in Libya, in Might 2020. There, Turkey had sided with the beleaguered forces of the Authorities of Nationwide Accord (GNA), which was mounting what amounted to a final stand across the Libyan capital of Tripoli. The GNA was dealing with off in opposition to the forces of the so-called Libyan Nationwide Military (LNA), primarily based out of Benghazi, which had launched a significant offensive designed to seize the capital, get rid of the GNA, and take management of all of Libya. 

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Methods to seize half a rustic

The LNA was supported by the a number of international powers, together with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia (through Wagner Group, a personal army contractor.) Turkey’s intervention positioned a heavy emphasis on the built-in drone warfare it had perfected in Syria. In Libya, the outcomes had been much more lop-sided, with the Turkish-backed GNA capable of drive the LNA forces again, capturing almost half of Libya within the course of. 

Each the LNA and Turkish-backed GNA made in depth use of fight drones, however solely Turkey introduced with it an built-in strategy to drone warfare. Observers have grown accustomed to the idea of particular person US drones working freely over locations corresponding to Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan, delivering precision strikes in opposition to terrorist targets. Nevertheless, as Iran demonstrated this previous Might, drones are weak to trendy air-defense methods, and US drone ways wouldn’t work over contested airspace. 

Likewise, the LNA, which made in depth use of Chinese language-made fight drones flown by UAE pilots, loved nice success till Turkey intervened. Its digital warfare and built-in air-defense capabilities then made LNA drone operations not possible to conduct, and the shortcoming of the LNA to subject an efficient protection in opposition to the Turkish drone operations resulted within the tide of battle quickly shifting on the bottom. If something, the associated fee differential between the Turkish-backed GNA and the LNA was better than the $ 1-to-$ 5 benefit loved by Turkey in Syria.

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The large gamers – the US, Russia & China – are enjoying catch-up

By the point Turkey started cooperating with Azerbaijan in opposition to Armenia in September 2020, Turkish drone warfare had reached its zenith, and the end result in Nagorno-Karabakh was all however assured. One of many important classes drawn from the Turkish drone experiences in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh is that these conflicts weren’t fought in opposition to so-called “poor nations.” 

Reasonably, the Turks had been dealing with off in opposition to well-equipped and well-trained forces working tools which intently parallels that present in most small- and medium-sized European nations. Certainly, in all three conflicts, Turkey was dealing with off in opposition to a few of the finest anti-aircraft missile defenses produced by Russia. The truth is that almost all nations, if confronted by a Turkish “drone swarm,” wouldn’t fare nicely. 

And the a number of deployment of drones is just going to develop. The US Military is presently engaged on what it calls the “Armed, Totally-Autonomous Drone Swarm,” or AFADS. When employed, AFADS will – autonomously, with out human intervention – find, establish, and assault targets utilizing what is named a “Cluster Unmanned Airborne System Sensible Munition,” which can dispense a swarm of small drones that fan out over the battlefield to find and destroy targets. 

China has likewise examined a system that deploys as much as 200 “suicide drones” designed to saturate a battlespace and destroy targets by flying into them. And this previous September, the Russian army built-in “drone-swarm” capabilities for the primary time in a large-scale army train. 

The face of recent warfare has been perpetually altered, and people nations that aren’t ready or outfitted to struggle in a battlefield the place drone expertise is totally integrated in each facet of the struggle can anticipate outcomes much like that of Armenia: extreme losses of males and tools, defeat, humiliation and the doubtless lack of their territory. That is the fact of recent warfare which, as Gustav Gressel notes, ought to make any nation not totally vested in drone expertise “suppose – and fear.”

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