‘Venture Worry’ is right here: Excellent storm of the brand new Covid variant and looming Brexit deadline exposes Boris the buffoon’s empty hand

With lorries lining the roads, meals shortages & the UK minimize adrift by its former EU allies to undergo its destiny, the prime minister is in a pickle he gained’t be capable of bluster his method out of this time.

Britain is in disaster, a multifaceted one at that. Over the weekend, Prime Minister Boris Johnson introduced that areas of London and south-east England can be positioned below “Tier four restrictions,” or in different phrases, a complete lockdown, following the revelation new mutation of Covid-19 has gained speedy traction. The brand new variant of the virus is reportedly 70 % extra contagious, and has been described as “uncontrolled” by Well being Secretary Matt Hancock.

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If that wasn’t unhealthy sufficient, a rising variety of nations, together with most of Europe, have subsequently responded to the event by blockading journey from the UK. Most alarmingly, this has additionally included incoming lorries and freight from the port of Dover into France through the Channel tunnel, the artery of Britain’s provide chains to the continent. Though it is not going to be a everlasting measure, this has provoked critical warnings from politicians and supermarkets regarding potential meals and provide shortages all through the nation.

After all, all of the speak about cargo delays, Calais and Dover sounds very acquainted. As a result of within the background of this disaster is the looming deadline for Brexit commerce talks between the UK and the European Union (EU). Johnson has repeatedly threatened a no-deal consequence if he doesn’t safe preferential phrases for Britain, and whereas there’s some suggestion he could also be bluffing as a negotiating tactic, all of the sudden this technique doesn’t appear too sensible on his behalf. Why? As a result of what’s at the moment taking place with Covid-19 is a taster of what a no-deal consequence will probably be like, and for the UK, it doesn’t look good in any respect. With potential shortages and nationwide panic, the coronavirus disaster has simply served to undermine the prime minister’s negotiating hand. Boris has failed the nation on a number of fronts.

The complete logic of Brexit in its most dogmatic type is premised on the assumption that the UK doesn’t have to depend on the EU, and is, actually, essentially “higher off” as an “unbiased sovereign nation.” This perspective has thrived on a sentiment of nationwide id, fairly than on geographic and financial realities. Britain is perceived to be “world,” born out of imperial nostalgia, fairly than a part of Europe, which is deemed to be separate and totally different. Stark warnings of potential repercussions from leaving the bloc have for years been dismissed below the popularised time period “challenge concern” – and because the debate grew to become polarised and toxified, many stopped listening.

The Conservative authorities has actively pushed a mantra of Brexit optimism: “That is going to be a implausible 12 months for Britain,” boasted Johnson in January, speaking of potential new commerce offers with far-flung nations which Brussels apparently obtained in the best way of. As talks have approached the climax, with simply 10 days left till the transition interval involves an finish, he’s not hesitated from weaponising the specter of a no-deal, saying Britain will stroll away and even subtly threatening to deploy the Royal Navy towards France to guard fishing rights. After all, it could play triumphantly domestically, however leaders on the continent have lengthy deciphered that this isn’t actually critical and that Boris is taking part in to the political gallery.

Now, he’s been made to look the idiot. Brexit is one factor, however the prime minister’s totally catastrophic strategy to Covid-19 is one other. European leaders have to be laughing as Johnson has bluffed over a no-deal Brexit, solely to see his virus mismanagement shut down Dover within the exact method his commerce threats would do. It blows aside the fantasy that leaving with out an settlement will probably be positive, and illustrates to the general public simply what beckons in that situation, that means that help for his place, and thus his negotiating hand, is severely undermined. Brussels could now imagine it may make him capitulate, not the opposite method spherical. The overlapping disasters of Covid-19 controls and a no-deal would serve a hammer blow to an already depleted UK economic system, and his help would evaporate.

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So, what does Johnson do now? The freight scenario is not going to final for the long run and can ultimately be resolved earlier than it inflicts critical issues, regardless of the unfold of the virus at residence. Nevertheless, Brexit negotiations are occurring concurrently regardless. Now that Europe has proven that it may convey the UK economic system to heel with collective motion, Boris’ bluster isn’t going to scrub. The prime minister could also be inclined lastly to compromise on EU calls for on the final minute, or if the timing doesn’t suffice, even lengthen the transition settlement. 

After all, both of these choices may additionally be politically damaging for him, however what alternative does he have? This can be a true case of the ‘Prime Minister’s New Garments’ – initially going towards Europe with powerful rhetoric, when actually he had nothing. Now everybody sees the bare fact for what it’s, and it’s not a fairly sight.

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