My expertise of Michel Barnier suggests he has an actual probability of changing into the following French president

The European Union’s former Brexit chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has entered the race for the French presidency. Success could seem like a protracted shot in the meanwhile, however I wouldn’t wager in opposition to this slick profession politician.

Barnier has introduced his intention to hunt the nomination of the Gaullist Les Republicains social gathering, which he has been a member of for 55 years. 

This was not an surprising announcement, as Barnier has been making noises about having a tilt on the Elysee for a while. Nevertheless, its significance should not be underestimated, as a result of it isn’t past the realms of risk that Barnier may become the winner.  

Now, I’ve seen Barnier up shut. Each month, I might sit not more than 10 yards away from him within the European Parliament’s Strasbourg chamber and watch him in full stream. Though I might hardly ever agree with something he mentioned, there was no getting away from the truth that he had fashion when mentioned it. Certainly, the 2 phrases which come into my head after I consider Barnier are erudite and urbane. 

I additionally met him when he was the European commissioner for the interior market and providers. I got here away from our assembly with the impression that I had been within the presence of an expert profession politician. I’m not saying that was a superb factor, however there was little question that he was completely suited to the function of a negotiator.  

Thus, somewhat than being a poisoned chalice, as many thought it might be, the function of Brexit negotiator helped cement Barnier’s status throughout Europe. His job was little question made simpler by Britain’s cack-handed negotiating stance underneath Theresa Could, however there is no such thing as a getting away from the truth that being the EU’s high-profile negotiator made Barnier a family title. 

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Barnier will use this Brexit expertise to his benefit. Certainly, earlier in the summertime, he launched his Brexit diaries, which overrated his profile and additional enhanced his status as a stern negotiator. He’ll little question make the case that his negotiating experience will permit him to get the most effective deal for France, as he claims he did for the EU. Furthermore, as he already is aware of nearly all of European leaders, he’ll declare to be a ‘secure pair of arms’ for the French individuals.  

Barnier has a number of hurdles to navigate earlier than he makes it onto the poll paper, as he nonetheless has to win the nomination of his social gathering. This prospect grew to become considerably simpler for Barnier yesterday when former Les Republicains chief Laurent Wauquiez, introduced that he wouldn’t be operating for the presidency.

The ultimate determination will likely be taken at subsequent month’s social gathering congress, the place delegates will select between Barnier, Valerie Pecresse, the pinnacle of the Paris regional council who’s thought to be Barnier’s foremost challenger, Philippe Juvin, a mayor from the Paris suburbs, and Eric Ciotti, a Republicain MP. Trying down the listing of candidates, I battle to see how Barnier won’t be nominated. 

He’ll search to position himself between the favourites, the sitting president, Emmanuel Macron, and the rebel chief of the Nationwide Rally, Marine Le Pen. He has already denounced the state of France underneath Macron, saying that “our nation is doing badly and we’d like a change-over.”

Barnier will try to color himself because the candidate of reconciliation; the older and wiser head who can deliver collectively a divided society. In an interview with TF1, for instance, he acknowledged that “in these grave occasions, I’ve taken the choice and have the dedication to face… and be the president of a France that’s reconciled, to respect the French and have France revered.”

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If Barnier focuses his marketing campaign on immigration, which seems to be to be the case from his latest statements, then it may show to be problematic for Le Pen. Earlier within the yr, Barnier advocated halting immigration into Europe for 5 years. Furthermore, when launching his presidential marketing campaign, he made it clear that though France had an obligation to absorb Afghan refugees from those that had helped French forces, the nation shouldn’t have an open door to everybody.

His intention is clearly to park his tanks on Le Pen’s garden – however doing it with out all of the accusations of racism that taint the Nationwide Rally chief. If Barnier can marry Le Pen’s rebel base with conventional conservative voters, his path to the Elysee will develop into clearer. 

Polls in the meanwhile present Macron and Le Pen are the clear frontrunners. But these polls are deceptive, as they’ve been carried out earlier than Les Republicains have chosen a candidate. The truth that Macron and Le Pen can solely muster round 25% every exhibits that there’s an urge for food for an alternate, and this could possibly be the place Barnier steps in. 

It additionally should be taken into consideration that the most important winner in June’s regional elections was Barnier’s Les Republicains social gathering. Macron’s social gathering was humiliated, being hammered proper throughout France, and Le Pen failed to select up a single regional presidency, which doesn’t bode properly for her presidential aspirations. As an alternative, voters turned to Les Republicains and if Barnier can take this momentum into subsequent yr, then he should be thought to be not solely a severe candidate however one of many favourites. 

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There may be in fact a protracted method to go, and there will likely be ups and downs forward for all the candidates. Nevertheless, if I used to be a betting man, and I do like a flutter, then I might not be averse to placing a number of quid on seeing Barnier within the Elysee come subsequent April. I could be improper, and in some methods, I actually hope I’m, however it seems to be to me as if the political stars may have aligned for Monsieur Barnier. Solely time will inform…   

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