The nation’s GDP development decelerated to four.9% in 2022, official statistics present
Poland’s GDP development in 2022 slipped from the earlier 12 months amid hovering inflation and a plunge in shopper spending caused by the battle in neighboring Ukraine and the affect of anti-Russia sanctions, in accordance with knowledge from the nation’s statistics company.
A flash estimate launched on Monday exhibits the nation’s GDP having grown by four.9% in 2022, down from the 6.eight% recorded in 2021. The expansion was pushed largely by industrial manufacturing, the rebuilding of inventories, exports, and funding. Consumption, nonetheless, registered a powerful slowdown going into the tip of the 12 months, as inflation weighed on actual disposable revenue and spending.
“This superb result’s to a big extent the impact of an excellent first half of the 12 months. The second half of the 12 months introduced a transparent slowdown in financial exercise, as a result of the results of upper inflation and better rates of interest turned obvious,” Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Financial institution Millennium, instructed Reuters.
December noticed headline inflation sluggish to 16.6% year-on-year due to power costs coming down from the almost 25-year highs they reached earlier within the 12 months. Nonetheless, analysts warn that shopper costs could surge once more in February 2023, as core inflation continued to rise in December, to 11.6% from 11.four% in November.
Analysts anticipate the start of 2023 to be troublesome for the Polish economic system, however predict that the second half of the 12 months could carry an upturn.
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“Until Europe encounters issues securing power sources for subsequent winter season (2023/24), we anticipate financial development of about 1% this 12 months. This needs to be accompanied by… persistently excessive core inflation, which is not going to enable rate of interest cuts earlier than the tip of this 12 months,” analysts from ING stated in a report.
The governor of Poland’s central financial institution, Adam Glapinski, stated earlier this month that he expects the nation to keep away from a recession, though there could also be non permanent fluctuations within the first quarter of the 12 months. He forecast GDP development to come back in at round zero.7% in 2023, “however nonetheless constructive.”
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