The slowdown in the U.S. and Europe, and structural changes in the Chinese economy could lead to a slowdown in global GDP growth to below 3% per year (in June the IMF forecast for 2012 – 4.5%), allow the experts Citi. Then oil prices fall in price to an annual average of $ 80 per barrel. The baseline scenario Citi – $ 100 per barrel, the average price of $ 103 for the next five years and predicted the International Energy Agency. $ 80 per barrel for the Russian economy will become "a new point of tension," write the authors of the report. Then the rate of growth in 2012 will slow to 2%, the exchange rate will fall to 35 rubles. $ 1, while inflation will drive up to 16%. The budget deficit will amount to 4% of GDP. Similar figures have a pessimistic scenario, April forecast Ministry of Economic Development (see table). The macroeconomic situation in such circumstances would be "weak but stable," analysts summarize Citi. If the debt crisis in Europe will get out of control, the global economy will sink into depression, then the price of a barrel of oil will drop to $ 50, allow at Citi. In this case, Russia's GDP will shrink by 3%, inflation jumps to 19%, and the dollar will cost about 40 rubles., The budget deficit to reach 7%. If oil prices remain at this level for a long time, the economic situation in Russia will decline, creating even more uncertainty for the future, the report said. Catastrophic drop in oil prices in 2008, can now be avoided, says Yaroslav Lissovolik from Deutsche Bank. Then Brent crude oil for five months fell four times to $ 147.5 per barrel, up $ 36.2 (data Bloomberg). Now a lot of liquidity in the market, developing countries have shown good growth rates, he said. The budgets of Saudi Arabia – the main regulator of oil prices – and other OPEC countries have been revised on the basis of $ 100 a barrel, recalled Lissovolik: Middle Eastern countries will try to keep prices at this level. The price of oil much politics, says Vladimir Tikhomirov from FK "Opening". In the context of global stagnation of price instability can heat up in the Middle East, he adds: The situation remains tense in Syria, there is a proliferation threat and the major oil producing countries. Oil quotes may fall to $ 80-90 only under the most pessimistic scenarios for the world economy, I am sure Lisovolik. The Russian market already believes in oil at $ 80, come to the conclusion that analysts Citi. The RTS index is usually about 20 times higher than the price of oil, they brought law. That is, at a price of $ 80 it should be around 1,600 points. At this level it is trading now and, although oil still above $ 100 (see incision). A similar situation was in 2008, the report said. Then the market fell more rapidly, and oil just followed Ry com, explains one of the authors of the report, Citi analyst Andrey Kuznetsov. The possibility of a repetition of this scenario is now, he adds. Pessimism prevails always in a sharp fall in the market, market participants include high risk, says Bank of Moscow analyst Denis Borisov. The market now believes the price of $ 85-90 per barrel, he agrees. Current oil price does not reflect the long-term trends, I'm sure Kuznetsov. He believes that the Russian market is trading below its level to reflect the unpleasant consequences of the pessimistic scenario. $ 80 per barrel price is not critical for Russia, said Tikhomirov. Reduced demand and slower growth in export industries, GDP growth could decline by 1%, he said, "But will not collapse." This price will be an additional challenge for the budget, he adds. But after the election, the budget may be adjusted significantly, says Tikhomirov: conduct aggressive and unpopular reforms will be easier if the price of oil at $ 80.
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