Whereas there may be little hope that relations between Washington and Moscow will heat up, the truth that Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov is assembly along with his US counterpart Mike Pompeo suggests they haven’t frozen over fairly but.
If unnamed diplomatic sources sharing insider info with information businesses are to be believed, Lavrov and Pompeo will focus on Ukraine, Syria, arms management and “different points” between the US and Russia after they meet on Tuesday.
The final time Lavrov visited Washington, in Might 2017, Pompeo was head of the CIA and US President Donald Trump had simply fired FBI Director James Comey, setting off an avalanche of criticism among the many media and Democrats that it was all associated to the ‘Russiagate’ conspiracy principle – which was ultimately debunked by particular counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation this spring.
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To take care of ‘Russiagate,’ nonetheless, Trump has pursued a hard-line coverage in the direction of Moscow, expelling Russian diplomats, closing consulates, approving sanctions, and siding with allies such because the UK of their “extremely probably” claims – however no proof – towards Russia. That has accomplished nothing to appease or mollify his critics, nonetheless, whereas making any type of cooperation with Russia on worldwide safety points, counter-terrorism or nuclear disarmament that rather more tough.
The semi-official agenda for the Lavrov-Pompeo assembly just isn’t terribly informative. What might they probably focus on about Ukraine, when the 2 international locations can’t even choose primary info? Russia maintains that it has no troops within the Donbass and that Crimea rejoined its motherland voluntarily, after a US-backed coup in Kiev. In the meantime, Washington insists Russia “invaded and occupied” Crimea and the Donbass after freedom and democracy got here to “Kyiv” with Victoria Nuland’s pastries.
Russia despatched an expeditionary power to Syria on the invitation from Damascus, and has been preventing terrorists starting from Islamic State (IS, previously ISIS) to rebranded Al-Qaeda, and all the things in between. The US, whose troops are in Syria with out authorized invitation, has not too long ago redeployed them to occupy oil wells and deny them to the federal government – which it by no means gave up on overthrowing.
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Intractable as these two points could also be, they don’t seem to be an existential menace to the planet. Nuclear weapons are. Proper now, the US and Russia are each observing a treaty, often known as New START or SNV-III respectively. It’s set to run out by February 2021, nonetheless, and there have been few indicators the US is keen to increase it by one other 5 years – a lot much less negotiate a brand new one.
Over the previous three years, Trump administration has up to date the US nuclear posture to replicate a rising obsession with Russia – and pointedly refusing to disavow a primary strike. Washington has additionally spelled out that it “won’t settle for any limitation or constraint on the event or deployment of missile protection capabilities.”
Whereas Trump has talked a couple of new nuclear treaty with Russia and perhaps even China, the precise individuals who must be concerned say that nothing has been accomplished to make it occur.
“It’s already apparent that with the time that’s left… we will be unable to work out a full-fledged alternative doc,” is how Vladimir Leontyev, deputy director on the Non-Proliferation and Arms Management Division of the Ministry of Overseas Affairs (MFA) put it final month.
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Even when some form of deal will get struck, there aren’t any ensures that Washington received’t merely tear it up – identical to Trump did final yr with the Iran nuclear pact, negotiated underneath his predecessor in 2015, or the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Vary Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, shredded earlier this yr.
Whereas Washington formally accused Russia of violating the treaty – providing no proof to the general public past media reviews – simply final week, Trump spoke of the INF as “unfair” and “out of date deal anyway,” masking “issues that frankly didn’t matter anymore.”
In the meantime, the specter of ‘Russiagate’ continues to hang-out American politics. Regardless that the accusations of Russian “meddling” in US elections and Trump’s “Kremlin ties” have been launched by his critics within the media and intelligence communities, they appear to have poisoned the nicely to the purpose the place the Trump administration itself rejected the Russian proposal of a mutual assure to not intrude in one another’s inner affairs.
With all that in thoughts, it’s tough to fathom what Lavrov could anticipate to truly accomplish in Washington.
By Nebojsa Malic, senior author at RT
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